Polymarket vs sportsbook research
Compare pricing gaps, execution friction, rule mismatch, and timing context across World Cup markets.
Market Desk
Kickoff Markets
Read where prediction-market prices diverge from sportsbook probabilities, while keeping execution cost and rule mismatch visible.
Current Market Read
There is no cleaner review-level disagreement under the current snapshot. The value today is seeing which visible gaps are absorbed by friction, freshness, or rule mismatch before you overread them.
Top disagreement
-717 bps gap · observe
Most misleading gap
No high-friction row is dominating the board right now.
Highest-liquidity market
$32,430,635 liquidity on Polymarket
Top not-comparable trap
0 bps gap blocked by rule mismatch
Use this board
Start with the read, then inspect the rows. The goal is not to treat every gap as an opportunity. It is to see which differences survive friction, liquidity, and rule mismatch.
Freshness
Research snapshot last refreshed 1h ago. Updated today, but no longer current.
Export
Review
0
Comparable gaps with lower execution drag.
High Friction
0
Gap exists, but fees, spread, or access change the read.
Not Comparable
4
Settlement or structure mismatch blocks a clean comparison.
Observe
15
Keep on the board, but not strong enough for a harder read.
How to use the market desk
Start with the pricing gap and status columns together. A large pricing difference only matters if the event definitions are comparable and execution friction does not absorb the edge. This page is designed to keep those constraints visible.
Research posture
The objective is cleaner market interpretation. The product does not assume every disagreement is actionable, and it does not hide rule mismatch under one headline score.
Moderate difference, but fees and spread eat most of the edge. (data may be stale)
PM
14.2%
SB no-vig
9.8%
Pricing gap
High friction
-238 bps · medium
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$2,225,702
Updated
1h
FAQ
The pricing gap shows the distance between Polymarket pricing and sportsbook no-vig probability after standard normalization. It is descriptive research context, not a trading instruction.
Some markets settle on slightly different event definitions. When rule mismatch is material, Kickoff Markets marks the row as not comparable instead of forcing a false clean comparison.
Execution friction is a research score summarizing fees, spread, liquidity, freshness, and access constraints. It is shown separately from the pricing difference so the user can judge whether a disagreement remains meaningful after execution costs.
Need the full rows?
Start with the Daily Market Snapshot if you want the complete market table and current snapshot outside the browser. Upgrade to the Match Day Market Brief when you want a shorter written brief for the most important windows.
Kickoff Markets is a Market Diagnostics Tool for educational purposes only. Scores, pricing gaps, and comparisons are diagnostic inputs only, not trading, investment, financial, or wagering advice. Full disclaimer.
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
12.8%
SB no-vig
13.6%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-95 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$4,097,458
Updated
1h
Lagging
Wide pricing gap, but execution friction is high — direct comparison is not safe. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
4.7%
Pricing gap
Reviewable
-467 bps · low
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$3,738,519
Updated
1h
Lagging
Moderate difference, but fees and spread eat most of the edge. (data may be stale)
PM
17.3%
SB no-vig
16.8%
Pricing gap
High friction
153 bps · medium
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$4,193,651
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.3%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-28 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$4,153,569
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.9%
SB no-vig
1.2%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-34 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$8,456,531
Updated
1h
Lagging
Wide pricing gap, but execution friction is high — direct comparison is not safe. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
6.0%
Pricing gap
Reviewable
-600 bps · low
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$1,353,869
Updated
1h
Lagging
Moderate difference, but fees and spread eat most of the edge. (data may be stale)
PM
32.8%
SB no-vig
32.6%
Pricing gap
High friction
210 bps · medium
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$3,653,603
Updated
1h
Lagging
Wide pricing gap, but execution friction is high — direct comparison is not safe. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
7.2%
Pricing gap
Reviewable
-717 bps · low
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$6,276,880
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.1%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-12 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$14,485,560
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
5.9%
SB no-vig
5.9%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-7 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$2,945,249
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
1.3%
SB no-vig
1.7%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-53 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$4,034,813
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.0%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-4 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$32,430,635
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.0%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-3 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$30,804,436
Updated
1h
Lagging
Prediction-market and sportsbook prices are within typical bid-ask noise. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.0%
Pricing gap
Markets agree
-4 bps · high
Friction
100/100
Heavy
Liquidity
$5,968,242
Updated
1h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.0%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$29,728,517
Updated
1h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.1%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$10,499,584
Updated
1h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
34.2%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$4,153,569
Updated
1h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.9%
SB no-vig
36.8%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$8,456,531
Updated
1h
Lagging
| Event | PM Price | SB No-Vig | Gap | Liquidity | Friction | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 14.2% | 9.8% | High friction-238 bps · medium | $2,225,702 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 12.8% | 13.6% | Markets agree-95 bps · high | $4,097,458 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 4.7% | Reviewable-467 bps · low | $3,738,519 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 17.3% | 16.8% | High friction153 bps · medium | $4,193,651 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.3% | Markets agree-28 bps · high | $4,153,569 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.9% | 1.2% | Markets agree-34 bps · high | $8,456,531 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 6.0% | Reviewable-600 bps · low | $1,353,869 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 32.8% | 32.6% | High friction210 bps · medium | $3,653,603 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 7.2% | Reviewable-717 bps · low | $6,276,880 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.1% | Markets agree-12 bps · high | $14,485,560 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 5.9% | 5.9% | Markets agree-7 bps · high | $2,945,249 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1.3% | 1.7% | Markets agree-53 bps · high | $4,034,813 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.0% | Markets agree-4 bps · high | $32,430,635 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.0% | Markets agree-3 bps · high | $30,804,436 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.0% | Markets agree-4 bps · high | $5,968,242 | 100/100Heavy | Observe Low liquidityStale source | 1hLagging |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.0% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $29,728,517 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 1hLagging |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.1% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $10,499,584 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 1hLagging |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 34.2% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $4,153,569 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 1hLagging |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.9% | 36.8% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $8,456,531 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 1hLagging |