Polymarket vs sportsbook research
Compare pricing gaps, execution friction, rule mismatch, and timing context across World Cup markets.
Calculator
Kickoff Markets
Convert odds, normalize market probability sets, and evaluate fractional Kelly sizing with your own probability estimates.
Method
Use this calculator to move between price formats without mixing concepts. It helps separate three different tasks: converting odds, removing sportsbook margin, and sizing a position from your own estimated edge.
Use case
The goal is disciplined translation between market formats, not producing a one-click verdict.
Implied Probability
60.00%
Decimal odds: 1.667
Next step
After you normalize probabilities or test Kelly assumptions, move to the market desk to see where live World Cup prices currently disagree.
FAQ
No conversion is needed. Polymarket yes-share prices are already probabilities, so the calculator treats them directly as such.
Sportsbook odds include margin. No-vig normalization removes that margin so cross-market comparisons use like-for-like probabilities.
Kelly sizing requires your own estimate of true probability. Implied probability alone is not enough, because Kelly depends on the difference between your view and the market price.
Method notes
Polymarket share prices are already probabilities. They are not transformed with an odds formula.
Kelly sizing requires your own probability estimate. Implied probability is not a valid substitute.
Kickoff Markets is a Market Diagnostics Tool for educational purposes only. Scores, pricing gaps, and comparisons are diagnostic inputs only, not trading, investment, financial, or wagering advice. Full disclaimer.