Polymarket vs sportsbook research
Compare pricing gaps, execution friction, rule mismatch, and timing context across World Cup markets.
Market Desk
Kickoff Markets
Read where prediction-market prices diverge from sportsbook probabilities, while keeping execution cost and rule mismatch visible.
Current Market Read
There is no cleaner review-level disagreement under the current snapshot. The value today is seeing which visible gaps are absorbed by friction, freshness, or rule mismatch before you overread them.
Top disagreement
0 bps gap · not comparable
Most misleading gap
No high-friction row is dominating the board right now.
Highest-liquidity market
$29,728,517 liquidity on Polymarket
Top not-comparable trap
0 bps gap blocked by rule mismatch
Use this board
Start with the read, then inspect the rows. The goal is not to treat every gap as an opportunity. It is to see which differences survive friction, liquidity, and rule mismatch.
Freshness
Research snapshot last refreshed 2h ago. Updated today, but no longer current.
Export
Review
0
Comparable gaps with lower execution drag.
High Friction
0
Gap exists, but fees, spread, or access change the read.
Not Comparable
4
Settlement or structure mismatch blocks a clean comparison.
Observe
0
Keep on the board, but not strong enough for a harder read.
How to use the market desk
Start with the pricing gap and status columns together. A large pricing difference only matters if the event definitions are comparable and execution friction does not absorb the edge. This page is designed to keep those constraints visible.
Research posture
The objective is cleaner market interpretation. The product does not assume every disagreement is actionable, and it does not hide rule mismatch under one headline score.
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.0%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$29,728,517
Updated
2h
Lagging
FAQ
The pricing gap shows the distance between Polymarket pricing and sportsbook no-vig probability after standard normalization. It is descriptive research context, not a trading instruction.
Some markets settle on slightly different event definitions. When rule mismatch is material, Kickoff Markets marks the row as not comparable instead of forcing a false clean comparison.
Execution friction is a research score summarizing fees, spread, liquidity, freshness, and access constraints. It is shown separately from the pricing difference so the user can judge whether a disagreement remains meaningful after execution costs.
Need the full rows?
Start with the Daily Market Snapshot if you want the complete market table and current snapshot outside the browser. Upgrade to the Match Day Market Brief when you want a shorter written brief for the most important windows.
Kickoff Markets is a Market Diagnostics Tool for educational purposes only. Scores, pricing gaps, and comparisons are diagnostic inputs only, not trading, investment, financial, or wagering advice. Full disclaimer.
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
0.1%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$10,499,584
Updated
2h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.0%
SB no-vig
34.2%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$4,153,569
Updated
2h
Lagging
The two markets settle on different rules, so their prices are not directly comparable. (data may be stale)
PM
0.9%
SB no-vig
36.8%
Pricing gap
Not comparable
0 bps · low
Friction
0/100
Low
Liquidity
$8,456,531
Updated
2h
Lagging
| Event | PM Price | SB No-Vig | Gap | Liquidity | Friction | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.0% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $29,728,517 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 2hLagging |
| Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 0.1% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $10,499,584 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 2hLagging |
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.0% | 34.2% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $4,153,569 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 2hLagging |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.9% | 36.8% | Not comparable0 bps · low | $8,456,531 | 0/100Low | Not Comparable | 2hLagging |