Polymarket vs sportsbook research
Compare pricing gaps, execution friction, rule mismatch, and timing context across World Cup markets.
Methodology
Kickoff Markets
The comparison layer behind the market dashboard, sample brief, and research pack.
Trust layer
This page explains how the product compares markets, applies friction, handles stale data, and decides when a row should be marked low confidence or not comparable.
What the product compares
Kickoff Markets compares prediction-market prices against sportsbook no-vig probabilities, then layers execution friction, freshness, and settlement-rule context on top of that comparison. The goal is to explain market disagreement, not to imply a position.
How Polymarket prices are treated
Polymarket prices are read as market prices with bid, ask, spread, volume, and liquidity context. When bid and ask are available, the displayed comparison should prefer executable context over a single midpoint impression.
How sportsbook numbers are treated
Sportsbook odds are normalized into no-vig probabilities so the comparison reflects the underlying market view rather than raw book margin. The model should also account for overround, book coverage, and any obvious settlement mismatch.
What makes a market comparable
A market should only be marked comparable when the event definition, settlement scope, and time window are close enough to support a fair comparison. Differences such as 90-minute result vs advancement, extra time, penalties, or tournament winner scope can make two rows look similar when they are not.
Execution friction
Execution friction summarizes fees, spread, liquidity, and access constraints into one research score, shown separately from the pricing difference so a gap can be judged after costs. On 2026-06-13 this changed to a price-aware effective fee (replacing a saturated raw on-chain cap that pinned most comparable markets at maximum friction). Because that shifts the friction score and status of every comparable market, each snapshot is now stamped with a scoring version, and friction values from before and after that date are not directly comparable over time.
Freshness and confidence
Each market should carry a freshness label and a confidence label. Freshness is based on when the source was fetched and when the score was computed. Confidence should drop when data is stale, liquidity is thin, or settlement rules are unclear.
Reason codes
Strong labels should be backed by simple reason codes such as stale data, low liquidity, wide spread, settlement mismatch, or manual review required. That makes the conclusion auditable instead of opaque.
Analyst notes
The sample brief and the highest-value rows can include short analyst notes. These notes explain why a row was highlighted and what evidence supports the label. They should stay descriptive, not promotional.
What the product does not do
Kickoff Markets does not provide forecasts, outcome guarantees, investment advice, or instructions to take positions on any market. It provides market research and educational context only.
Operational rule
When data is stale, incomplete, or hard to compare, the product should degrade the conclusion rather than force a strong call. Honest uncertainty is part of the product, not a bug.
Kickoff Markets is a Market Diagnostics Tool for educational purposes only. Scores, pricing gaps, and comparisons are diagnostic inputs only, not trading, investment, financial, or wagering advice. Full disclaimer.